000 AXNT20 KNHC 081753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W FROM 4N TO 10N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 25W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 6N TO 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. CLOUD MOVEMENT OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 9N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 49W AND 54W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BUT REMAINS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA EAST OF 64W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 6N30W 7N40W 8N50W 8.5N60W. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 25W AND 45W. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF COTE D'IVOIRE AND SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 100 NM OFFSHORE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY DRY AND MOSTLY STABLE AIR ALOFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED WELL INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO GALVESTON. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING INLAND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THIS REGION...SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 73W...DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST BASIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION. COMPUTER MODELS ALSO INDICATE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST VENEZUELA IS EXPECTED TO BRING CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN BASIN..EAST OF 70W...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 12 KT...SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THIS REGION. THE FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N65W 28N72W 24N77W. THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. CONSIDERABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 70W FROM 18N TO 24N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE AXIS AND 80 NM WEST OF THE AXIS. COMPUTER MODELS HINT THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CAUGHT UP WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOVING THE CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA