000 AXNT20 KNHC 081038 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 4N22W TO 12N18W. TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 11N49W TO 6N46W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS TILTED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 44W-50W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BUT REMAINS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 55W-62W TO THE COAST OF W GUYANA/NE VENEZUELA BUT OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO INDICATION IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OVER LAKE MARACAIBO. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N11W 5N25W 6N29W 8N44W 7N54W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 6N-11N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 5N15W 4N8W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 4N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 22W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS WELL INLAND OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF ANCHORED JUST S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING N TO OVER ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND THE DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W FROM TUXPAN MEXICO TO BETWEEN GALVESTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE E GULF FROM A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC OVER TAMPA FLORIDA CONTINUING NW TO ACROSS E LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE WEAK 1017 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL CUBA...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SUPPRESSED OVER THE MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIA BAY AND THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AGAIN THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 20N85W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 77W. A SMALL UPPER HIGH IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER PANAMA HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND COMBINED WITH THE SMALL UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA BETWEEN 10N-13N. A VERY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THIS UPPER HIGH AND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE E TO GENERATE SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO CONTINUES TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO LEAVING A SWATH OF THE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND FORT LAUDERDALE THEN BECOMING STATIONARY BEFORE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT AND FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 77W-81W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN W OF 60W. A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE TO THE SE OF THE FRONT. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N73W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO OVER HAITI NEAR 19N72W AND A SECOND TO THE W FROM 24N66W TO 19N68W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS S OF 23N TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 61W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ALL OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE