000 AXNT20 KNHC 080550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A WEAKER DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 17W-21W. TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 10N48W TO 4N45W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS TILTED TOWARD A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 42W-50W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 56W-61W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO INDICATION IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF W VENEZUELA AND MOVING INTO COLOMBIA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 4N27W 7N47W 6N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 10N W OF 6W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 28W-34W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 50W-56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 6W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 21W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS WELL INLAND OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W EXTENDING N TO OVER ALABAMA. THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO IS GENERATING SEVERE WEATHER OVER MEXICO AND COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE GULF W OF 95W FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E GULF FROM THE W ATLC OVER TAMPA FLORIDA BECOMING STATIONARY CONTINUING NW TO ACROSS LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SUPPRESSED IN THE GULF. THUS CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W. A SMALL UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N81W COVERING THE AREA S OF 15N W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N81W AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER HIGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE SW CARIBBEAN S OF OF A LINE FROM THE NE TIP OF NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N FROM CUBA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE CENTRAL SWATH OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEAR TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N71W EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR VERO BEACH THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 76W AND FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 76W-81W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN W OF 50W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W TO OVER HAITI NEAR 18N71W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N64W TO NE OF THE PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N64W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 61W-67W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 64W-71W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ALL OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SE OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE