000 AXNT20 KNHC 072332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N17W TO 5N18W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO CORRESPONDS TO A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 17W-19W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AS WELL AS A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 40W-45W...AND FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 44W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER GUYANA...AND SURINAME FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 55W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA ALONG 71W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-75W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 10N16W 5N30W 8N43W 6N50W 6N64W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA APPROACHING THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 36W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF MEXICO N OF 21N W OF 98W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N101W. THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N93W 28N96W. CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 15 NM OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N87W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 28N81W 28N84W BECOMING STATIONARY TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N90W. CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS ENHANCING AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 28N-29N E OF 83W...AND ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD INTO THE W ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA... CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN COVERING PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY SUPPORTED BY THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 80W-82W ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A 1008 MB LOW OVER PANAMA NEAR 10N80W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W. THIS CONVECTION MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N74W CONTINUING TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL AT 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND 45 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS SE FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 77W-81W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 29N70W TO 21N73W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 24N72W TO 20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 64W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N62W TO 23N66W. A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 63W FROM 22N-27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FARTHER E N OF 24N BETWEEN 56W-61W. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB STATIONARY AZORES HIGH NEAR 36N39W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE E ATLC SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON