000 AXNT20 KNHC 071802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1845 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W FROM 6N TO 12N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 21W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W FROM 4N TO 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BEGINNING TO TRAIL A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W FROM 3N TO 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 5N30W 8N40W 6N50W 7N60W. ASIDE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION COVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF COTE D'IVOIRE AND LIBERIA TO 100 NM OFFSHORE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS...INCLUDING MEXICO AND THE GULF. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST GULF SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...80 NM AWAY...ALONG 29N94W 27N95W 25N95W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN...NORTH OF 26N WEST OF 92W...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAKER TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 70 NM OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO NEAR 22N96W TO PUNTA ROCA PARTIDA NEAR 19N95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 20 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 21N. A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NORTHEAST GULF ANALYZED ALONG NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W WESTWARD TO THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W...SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PASSING OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. NO CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR OR ALONG THIS FRONT. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. CARIBBEAN SEA... CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS FOUND IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION DOMINATES THIS REGION...SUPPORTED BY AN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. THESE MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FURTHER SUPPORT A 1009 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 9N77W. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 74W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERED THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 15 KT...SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONGWAVE PASSING OVER THIS REGION. THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO OVER THIS REGION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 72W FROM 21N TO 28N...SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BRINGING MORE CONVECTION FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N59W SOUTHWEST ALONG 24N62W TO NEAR 21N63W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 22N. THIS TROUGH OS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N39W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA