000 AXNT20 KNHC 071158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED ALONG 15W/16W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN1 20 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 8N-13N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BEGINNING TO TRAIL A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 34W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 11N53W TO 3N49W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 55W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH LITTLE INDICATION IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF N VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 12N DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD. WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWDEP/AZPZ20 KNHC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 5N27W 8N39W 6N47W 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 17W-28W AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 28W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 40W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N100W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR NEAR 21N85W. DIFFLUENCE COVERS THE N/CENTRAL GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 86W-95W. A DISSIPATING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N87W TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W BUT DUE TO THE DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS STILL NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC WITH A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NW OF THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 26N83W AND PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL W CUBA NEAR 21N85W COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 72W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE NE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIPS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING TO 14N E OF 72W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CONVERGENT TRADEWINDS AT THE SURFACE AND AN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N E OF 83W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEAR THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 69W-78W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF 72W TO OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 25N71W TO ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 25N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 60W-70W DIPPING S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N59W TO NE OF THE PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N64W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 56W-63W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 55W-61W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ALL OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N37W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE