000 AXNT20 KNHC 070531 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 32W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 11N50W TO 3N48W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH LITTLE INDICATION IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF E VENEZUELA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 68W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 12N DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N14W 6N25W 7N37W 6N55W 7N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 20W-32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 16W-32W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS/NE MEXICO NEAR 26N99W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N84W. MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH DIFFLUENCE SPREADING OVER THE N/CENTRAL AND NE GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N E OF 94W TO THE N GULF COAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N88W TO OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NW GUATEMALA BUT DUE TO THE DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC WITH A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NW OF THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N84W AND PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ANCHORED W CUBA NEAR 22N48W COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 72W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE NE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIPS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING N OF 14N E OF 72W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CONVERGENT TRADEWINDS AT THE SURFACE AND AN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 82W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEAR TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER W CUBA EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 72W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N W OF 75W TO THE FLORIDA E COAST AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 26N70W TO OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N73W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 55W-72W DIPPING S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N59W TO NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N62W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 57W-63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ALL OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N38W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE