000 AXNT20 KNHC 051747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. IT ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 26W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 9N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENT NE AND SE WINDS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 38W-44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 53W-61W AND LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER A LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 8N. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N13W 7N26W 3N29W 5N41W 5N44W 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-11N BETWEEN 10W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 46W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA OVER THE NW GULF INTO NE MEXICO NEAR 22N100W...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N83W. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING N-NE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION INTO THE SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. THIS IS PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 89W-94W. FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY AND LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAXIMUMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY N OF 28N...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WEST OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N79W AND ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N83W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC THAT COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 68W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS NE PORTIONS...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES...PROVIDING FOR CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N E OF 68W. ELSEWHERE...CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND EASTERN COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS COVERS THE W ATLC WEST OF 68W. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 73W FROM 20N-27N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 65W-70W...IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTS ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE AND BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 29N50W TO 20N58W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-29N BETWEEN 47W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W-SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 32N54W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN