000 AXNT20 KNHC 051041 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE AND IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-29W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LITTLE CYCLONIC CURVATURE REMAINS BUT WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BUT WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE REMAINS ALONG THE WAVE. WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND LOSING ITS IDENTITY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 6N24W 4N33W 6N45W 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 6.5N FROM 38W-40W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 330 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN LIBERIA AND THE S PORTION OF SENEGAL WITH SMALLER CLUSTERS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 17W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-33W AND FROM THE ITCZ TO 7N BETWEEN 30W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NARROW ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO MEXICO NW OF TAMPICO COVERING THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO TUXPAN MEXICO PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF LOUISIANA W OF VERMILION BAY AND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERA CRUZ TO JUST N OF TAMPICO W OF 95W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N90W OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 17N94W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 21N E OF 95W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND S MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SE SURFACE FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N86W OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 24N80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR AND THUS CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 12N W OF 74W ANCHORED S OF CUBA NEAR 21N83W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 60W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY UPPER EASTERLY FLOW. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE SE SURFACE FLOW IS PRODUCING A LINE OF LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE PANAMA CANAL ALONG 11N82W TO NE NICARAGUA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 68W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDING FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 32N77W. AN EQUALLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 22N67W TO 28N68W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 35W INCLUDING AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N46W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N49W TO 18N57W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 19N-26N. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N44W S OF 18N EXTENDING FROM 35W INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS WITH A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE