000 AXNT20 KNHC 050538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE BETWEEN 6N-9N AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 22W-28W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LITTLE CYCLONIC CURVATURE REMAINS BUT WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 37W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE REMAINS ALONG THE WAVE. WAVE IS MOVING OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND LOSING ITS IDENTITY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 4N29W 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND MOVING OFF SW AFRICA WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA AND S PORTION OF SENEGAL. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N13W TO 2N20W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM NE LOUISIANA SW TO OVER MEXICO W OF TAMPICO COVERING THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERA CRUZ TO N OF TAMPICO. A WEAKENING 1006 MB LOW ALONG THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER NEAR 30.5N WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N89W ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 17N94W GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND S MEXICO. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THUS CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 74W ANCHORED S OF CUBA NEAR 21N84W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 60W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER EASTERLY FLOW. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE SE SURFACE FLOW IS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 12N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 67W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 76W-80W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXTENDING FROM 26N72W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH NOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE E ATLC INCLUDING AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N47W WHICH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N46W TO 18N58W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 18N-23N. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 60W-73W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N53W IS S OF 23N EXTENDING FROM 35W INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WITH A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 32N45W AND A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE