000 AXNT20 KNHC 050003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 9N MOVING W 13 KT. WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE FROM 7N-9N. MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 22W-27W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 20W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W FROM 3N TO 10N MOVING W 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 36W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM OFF THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W 2N50W. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR OR ALONG THE ITCZ. HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA...SIERRA LEONE...AND LIBERIA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL EXPAND TO 80 NM OFF THE COAST OF THESE COUNTRIES OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE WORKING TOGETHER TO BRING A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE GULF...NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 92W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG 30N86W 29N86W 27N85W MOVING NORTHEAST AT 18 KT...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM EAST OF THE LINE. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 25N...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW 5 KT TO 10 KT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 91W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SUPPORTS THESE SHOWERS..EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY STABLE AIR. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS COMING OUT OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO NEAR THIS REGION CROSSING THE BAHAMAS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG 28N74W 25N76W 22N78W. SCATTER WEAK SHOWERS TO ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 35 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. MODEL DATA INDICATES DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 27N44W 30N50W 18N55W. MODERATE TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE SAME REGION AS THE CONVECTION WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA