000 AXNT20 KNHC 041203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IA ALONG 22W/23W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE BETWEEN 6N-10N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-24W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SLIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE BETWEEN 6N-9N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 35W-39W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION REMAINS ALONG 52W BETWEEN 7N-10N WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 3N27W 6N40W 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 10W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 21W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING NE LOUISIANA SW TO OVER NW MEXICO COVERING THE GULF N OF 24N W OF 88W. A 1005 MB LOW IS NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF ALONG 29N93W TO 27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 91W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE S FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 92W-96W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N E OF 83W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THUS CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W WHILE AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA JUST E OF THE ABC ISLANDS TO 15N63W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND THE SE SURFACE FLOW IS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 19N82W TO 14N79W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 20N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WITHIN WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 75W-77W. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND E OF THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 60W-64W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N TO THE COAST OF CUBA W OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N71W TO E CUBA NEAR 20N75W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER S FLORIDA. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 30N60W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 67W-70W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N48W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N41W THROUGH A WEAK 1018 MB LOW NEAR 26N45W TO 18N55W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 23N-28N. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N44W EXTENDING FROM 30W-60W AND A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS THE E ATLC TO BEYOND 32N22W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WHICH THE SURFACE TROUGH BISECTS AND A 1025 MB HIGH NW OF THE TROUGH NEAR 32N49W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE 000 AXNT20 KNHC 041203 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IA ALONG 22W/23W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE BETWEEN 6N-10N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-24W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SLIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE BETWEEN 6N-9N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 35W-39W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION REMAINS ALONG 52W BETWEEN 7N-10N WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 3N27W 6N40W 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 10W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 21W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING NE LOUISIANA SW TO OVER NW MEXICO COVERING THE GULF N OF 24N W OF 88W. A 1005 MB LOW IS NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF ALONG 29N93W TO 27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 91W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE S FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 92W-96W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N E OF 83W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THUS CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W WHILE AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA JUST E OF THE ABC ISLANDS TO 15N63W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND THE SE SURFACE FLOW IS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 19N82W TO 14N79W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 20N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WITHIN WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 75W-77W. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND E OF THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 60W-64W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N TO THE COAST OF CUBA W OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N71W TO E CUBA NEAR 20N75W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER S FLORIDA. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 30N60W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 67W-70W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N48W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N41W THROUGH A WEAK 1018 MB LOW NEAR 26N45W TO 18N55W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 23N-28N. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N44W EXTENDING FROM 30W-60W AND A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS THE E ATLC TO BEYOND 32N22W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WHICH THE SURFACE TROUGH BISECTS AND A 1025 MB HIGH NW OF THE TROUGH NEAR 32N49W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE