000 AXNT20 KNHC 040002 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W FROM 2N TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 5N TO 11N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO MOVING WITH THE ITCZ. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM. ANY NEAR BY PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W FROM 3N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 9 KT. WEAK CONVECTION IS FOUND EAST OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N11W WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 4N30W 6N40W 8N50W 5N60W. BESIDES AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 11W AND 18W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST NEAR 30N95W. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS ARE SUPPORTING A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE GULF...NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 90W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA. AS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MODELS INDICATED THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 80 NM OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 25N...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW 5 KT TO 10 KT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CONVECTION PRODUCED BY THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA...HAS MOVED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...LEAVING THE SOUTHWEST BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY STABLE AIR. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE FAR EASTERN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF DISCUSSION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...RIGHT IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW...SUPPORTING AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHINESS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W AND 48W. WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THIS REGION. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 25N68W 23N72W 20N74W. MODERATE TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE CONVECTION WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA