000 AXNT20 KNHC 031054 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N21W TO 3N23W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY. A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 20W-22W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 40W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 48W-51W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ALONG 70W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA ALONG 83W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES WLY FLOW IN THE E PACIFIC WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PREVENT IT FROM PROPAGATING WWD. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 79W-85W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 5N10W 6N20W 5N30W 6N40W 7N50W INTO NE SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 11W-16W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 44W-48W...AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 53W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS ALONG A SQUALL LINE HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND IS NOW IMPACTING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 0900 UTC...THE SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM S OF WRN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W TO 25N97W. THE STRONGEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM BEHIND THE SQUALL AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN 200 NM BEHIND THE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE ERN SIDE OF A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE E ACROSS MISSISSIPPI IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 86W-89W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE FAR SE GULF OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN REMAINS CLEAR AND DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA ALONG 83W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 79W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN ACROSS ERN CUBA N OF 19N BETWEEN 75W-79W...AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA N OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-71W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY LINKED TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE N ACROSS THE SW ATLC THAT EXTENDS TO NEAR 20N74W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N86W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE NRN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N51W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA W OF 78W. A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 25N71W ACROSS THE SW BAHAMAS TO NEAR 20N74W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 66W-71W...19N-21N BETWEEN 63W-66W...AND FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 68W-70W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS ALONG 31N29W 27N35W 26N42W 22N47W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGHS IS SUPPORTING BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 50W. FARTHER E...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS NOTED S OF 20N W OF 45W. ALOFT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGES COVER THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N24W...AND 11N37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON