000 AXNT20 KNHC 030550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUN 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N22W TO 2N21W MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 20W-24W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE N. NO DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 42W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ALONG 71W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 69W-71W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA FROM 11N81W TO 4N83W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES WLY FLOW IN THE E PACIFIC WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PREVENT IT FROM PROPAGATING WWD. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 79W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 80W-83W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N14W 6N20W 5N30W 6N40W 6N50W INTO NE SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-13W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 47W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS CLEAR AND DRY TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LOUISIANA SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 88W-91W. A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE BASIN CURRENTLY ACROSS TEXAS SUPPORTING AN INTENSE LINE OF STORMS ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE LINE OF SHOWERS IS JUST APPROACHING THE FAR W GULF W OF 96W N OF 23N. THIS IS A FAST MOVING LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS TEXAS AND OVER THE WRN GULF. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SE GULF FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 81W-83W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW GULF AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 79W-85W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER GUATEMALA AND WRN HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN ACROSS ERN CUBA N OF 19N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY LINKED TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE N ACROSS THE SW ATLC. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N86W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE NRN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N50W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...A STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N60W TO 24N74W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 68W-71W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH POKES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 30N39W 27N47W 27N57W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS ALONG 30N31W 26N37W 24N42W 21N47W MEETING THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N60W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTING BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 50W. FARTHER E...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS NOTED S OF 20N W OF 45W. ALOFT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGES COVER THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N24W...AND 11N37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON