000 AXNT20 KNHC 030003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUN 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 17W FROM 2N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ SURROUNDED BY CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W TO 28W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 1N TO 9N MOVING WEST AT 11 KT. EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS...THIS WAVE IS LOCALIZED WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACCORDING TO THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 31W AND 36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 1N TO 9N MOVING WEST AT A RATE OF 7 TO 10 KT. THE MOST RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION FOUND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM INLAND WEST AFRICA OVER GUINEA NEAR 11N10W WESTWARD ALONG 6N20W 6N30W 5.5N40W 5.5N50W. BESIDES AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W AND 57W. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W TO 28W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MOST THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR 28N90W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 85 NM OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE WITH A BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT THIS EVENING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC...ALONG 84W...IS GENERATING WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 74W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES EAST OF 81W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 17N EAST OF 81W...INCLUDING THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN OVER THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN....DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N53W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC INTO WEST AFRICA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THESE TWO FEATURES IS KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR STATIONARY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 30N32W 23N43W 18N57W 20N65W 2374W. WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM WEST OF 65W...INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING THIS STATIONARY FRONT. TO THE WEST OF THIS FRONT...A WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 31N37W 27N45W 25N53W. NO CONVECTION IS SEEN ALONG OR NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE SAME REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS/GARCIA