000 AXNT20 KNHC 020533 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 18W-22W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS SEEN ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. HOWEVER...A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS TO THE NORTH AND WRAPPING AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS KEEPING CONVECTION SUPPRESSED. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 29W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES W OF A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 11N65W TO 4N63W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 63W-66W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 11N74W TO 4N73W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 73W-75W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 73W-74W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 81W S OF 10N. WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES WLY FLOW IN THE E PACIFIC WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PREVENT IT FROM PROPAGATING WWD. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE ERN MOST PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 80W-82W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W ALONG 7N20W 6N30W 6N40W TO INLAND SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N58W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 9W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-28W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS CLEAR AND DRY TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY STABLE AIR MASS ALOFT. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WRN LOUISIANA TO NEAR 22N92W IN THE WRN GULF SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 90W-93W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT PROPAGATES EWD. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NO SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND HONDURAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN ACROSS ERN CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 74W-79W...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 67W-73W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY LINKED TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE N...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES. A WAVE ALONG 74W IS ENHANCING ACTIVITY S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-76W. A WAVE ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 81W IS ENHANCING ACTIVITY S OF 12N BETWEEN 80W-83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N77W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE NRN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N60W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF FLORIDA AFFECTING THE NW BAHAMAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH POKES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 30N45W 27N58W BECOMING A SHEAR LINE TO NEAR 29N65W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS ALONG 31N36W 22N49W 20N62W 21N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 63W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN...AND THE SE BAHAMAS. THESE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTING BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS S OF 35N ALONG 58W. FARTHER E...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS NOTED S OF 20N W OF 40W. ALOFT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGES COVER THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N27W...AND 11N33W. 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