000 AXNT20 KNHC 020005 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W FROM 2N TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 11 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THEREFORE...THE CONVECTION FOUND NEARBY THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY FOUND IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W FROM 2N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. TWO OTHER WEAVES ARE INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...CROSSING VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. ANOTHER WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM INLAND WEST AFRICA OVER GUINEA NEAR 10N13W WESTWARD ALONG 5.5N20W 4.5N30W 4N40W 3N50W. BESIDES AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16W AND 40W. A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA...SIERRA LEONE...AND LIBERIA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MOST THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM APPEAR TO BE PASSING OVER THE FAR WEST BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 27N94W 26N94W 25N94W...PRODUCING A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE WITH A BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT THIS EVENING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W. THIS LOW IS A REMNANT OF AGATHA THAT MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST NEAR THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. COMPUTER MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY INDICATING THE FUTURE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO SHIFT ACCORDINGLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC IS GENERATING WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 74W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES EAST OF 80W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 80W...INCLUDING THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN....DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N62W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER NORTH OF 24N WEST OF 50W. NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC...AFFECTING MOSTLY THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTH OF 23N...DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE ENTERING THIS REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE CONTINUES TO ENTER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N34W AND CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N45W 22N55W 20N65W INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. TO THE WEST OF THIS STATIONARY FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N45W 29N52W 29N60W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE NO CONVECTION IS SEEN ALONG OR NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE STATIONARY FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE SAME REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SUPPORTS A 1019 MB NEAR 32N26W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA