000 AXNT20 KNHC 011829 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE DISCUSSION PART FOR EACH AREA. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1815 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W TO THE SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 KT. MUCH OF THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT COVERED THE AREA FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W HAS WEAKENED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS STILL REMAIN IN THAT AREA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 3N30W 4N42W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N10W 5N20W 5N30W 5N50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THANKS TO A TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST...NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W. SHOWERS ALSO ARE INLAND IN SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS EXTENDING FROM A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...PASSING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RIDING ON TOP OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME FROM THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N86W. THIS LOW IS A REMNANT OF AGATHA THAT MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST NEAR THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER A FEW DAYS AGO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED A BIT DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W...WITH THE 80W TROPICAL WAVE. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 18N63W...RIGHT AT THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 16N...IN THE WATERS AND ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BETWEEN 63W AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SHOWERS COVER PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT ROUGHLY IS ALONG 70W. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 60W...AND IN A NARROWER WAY TO ITS BASE TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N63W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W 24N50W 21N60W. THE FRONT BECOMES WARM FROM 21N60W TO 21N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH THIS LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW...PASSING THROUGH 32N48W 29N59W TO 30N65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT