000 AXNT20 KNHC 011801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WESTAWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W TO THE SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 KT. MUCH OF THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT COVERED THE AREA FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W HAS WEAKENED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS STILL REMAIN IN THAT AREA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 3N30W 4N42W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N10W 5N20W 5N30W 5N50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY SW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE W ATLC E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AT 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 19N87W INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 85W-87W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 17N78W AND EXTENDS AN AXIS N INTO THE W ATLC E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A SECOND ENE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENDS IN THE MONA PASSAGE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF 71W ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA ALONG 78W E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BEYOND 32N. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WITHIN 60 NM OF 79W. AT 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 27N79W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF A LINE FROM 26N79W TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 55W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 35W SUPPORTING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W ALONG 24N51W INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 18N52W KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THERE AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AFRICAN DUST SPREADING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT