000 AXNT20 KNHC 010004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W FROM 03N TO 11N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...SUPPRESSED BY MID TO UPPER LEVEL SAHARAN AIR LAYER. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W FROM 3N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS EVIDENT AT THE TIME OF ANALYSIS DUE TO SAHARAN AIR NEAR THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W FROM 3N TO 11N MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. THIS WAVE IS ENTERING THE NORTHEAST SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT OVER FRENCH GUIANA. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS IS FOUND INLAND OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 6N20W 4N30W 6N40W 6.5N50W 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE FROM 3.5N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOST THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND RE-FORM AGAIN NEAR THE SAME REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...A BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT THIS EVENING...WITH A LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 28N88W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED IN A AREA OF CONSIDERABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A WEAK 1010 MB REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS FOUND AT SURFACE NEAR 18N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE SURFACE LOW CENTER...FROM 22N85W 18N86W 15N87W. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS BRINGING WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WEST OF 83W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE CONVECTION WILL LINGER OVER THE SAME REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED CROSSING NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN...SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 74W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC NEAR HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THESE ISLANDS AND NEAR WATERS NORTH OF 16N...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN....DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N67W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER NORTH OF 24N WES OF 53W. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE MEAN TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N40W AND CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N45W 24N50W 22N54W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 21N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WEST OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ANALYZED ALONG 23N56W 22N61W 20N67W CONTINUING AS A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR LINE. WEAKER CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE MAY LINGER NEAR THE SAME REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SUPPORTS A 1025 MB HIGH WEST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 40N15W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA