000 AXNT20 KNHC 311805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED WITH THE ITCZ. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 10N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE ITCZ. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 35W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NORTH. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. AN INVERTED -V LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 63W-67W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION E AND W OF THE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 7N20W 4N30W 7N50W 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 10W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 47W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N69W IS PRODUCING 5-10 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 88W-91W. MORE AIRMASS RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND FLORIDA E OF 82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE NEAR 35N85W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF STATES FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...N OF 29N BETWEEN 83W-94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO ADVECT N AND PRODUCE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF...W CUBA...AND S FLORIDA. EXPECT... RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF BETWEEN TAMPICO MEXICO AND BROWNSVILLE TX. ALSO EXPECT...A SURFACE TROUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN AND SHOWERS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18N87W DRIFTING N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 85W-87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N BETWEEN 78W-87W. FURTHER S... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 77W-80W. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 66W-71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N82W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N58W. SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH UPPER LEVEL HIGHS WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS TO DOT MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE EXISTING SURFACE FEATURES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N69W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N43W TO 22N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 42W-47W...AND FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 54W-68W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO 32N28W 21N45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 75W. AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N45W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA NEAR 12N15W. EXPECT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DRIFT E WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA