000 AXNT20 KNHC 311802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED WITH THE ITCZ. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 10N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE ITCZ. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 35W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NORTH. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. AN INVERTED -V LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 63W-67W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION E AND W OF THE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 7N20W 4N30W 7N50W 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 10W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 47W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N69W IS PRODUCING 5-10 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 88W-91W. MORE AIRMASS RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND FLORIDA E OF 82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE NEAR 35N85W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF STATES FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...N OF 29N BETWEEN 83W-94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO ADVECT N AND PRODUCE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF...W CUBA...AND S FLORIDA. EXPECT... RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF BETWEEN TAMPICO MEXICO AND BROWNSVILLE TX. ALSO EXPECT...A SURFACE TROUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN AND SHOWERS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18N87W DRIFTING N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 85W-87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N BETWEEN 78W-87W. FURTHER S... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 77W-80W. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 66W-71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N82W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N58W. SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH UPPER LEVEL HIGHS WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS TO DOT MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE EXISTING SURFACE FEATURES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N69W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N43W TO 22N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 42W-47W...AND FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 54W-68W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO 32N28W 21N45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 75W. AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N45W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA NEAR 12N15W. EXPECT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DRIFT E WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH SE OF BERMUDA WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING MOST OF THE W ATLC W OF 55W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE E FLORIDA COAST S OF 30N TO OVER CUBA. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W TO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N49W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 22N58W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AND ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC SE OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NE ALONG 23N45W TO BEYOND 32N30W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200/225 NM SE OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER CENTRAL MOROCCO SSW OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N32W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N26W INTO THE TROPICS TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N57W KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THERE AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AFRICAN DUST SPREADING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA