000 AXNT20 KNHC 311044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED WITH THE ITCZ. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 10N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE ITCZ. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 35W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE WAS RELOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NORTH. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N29W 7N37W 8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 3N3W TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA NEAR 5N7W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-18W AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 41W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS N ALABAMA AND A SECOND WEAKER UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF EXTREME S TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ALONG THE COAST OF ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI ACROSS S LOUISIANA S OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE CHARLES TO OVER SE TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND ALONG THE COAST FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA AND WITHIN 45 NM OFFSHORE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. THE UPPER LOW OFF THE S TEXAS COAST IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA DUE A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N85W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO ACROSS HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM NEAR 16N74W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W CONTINUING SW TO OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W-76W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N E OF 73W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND TO THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH SE OF BERMUDA WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING MOST OF THE W ATLC W OF 55W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE E FLORIDA COAST S OF 30N TO OVER CUBA. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W TO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N49W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 22N58W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AND ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC SE OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NE ALONG 23N45W TO BEYOND 32N30W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200/225 NM SE OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER CENTRAL MOROCCO SSW OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N32W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N26W INTO THE TROPICS TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N57W KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THERE AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AFRICAN DUST SPREADING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE