000 AXNT20 KNHC 310535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED WITH THE ITCZ. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 10N MOVING W 20 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 5N-8N. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 8N34W TO 7N38W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 10N MOVING W 25 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NORTH. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 12N MOVING NW 25 KT. WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH LITTLE SIGNATURE IN THE ATLC WATERS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 11N MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS COMPLETELY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N24W 5N42W 7N59W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO NW ALABAMA AND A SECOND WEAKER UPPER LOW IS OVER EXTREME S TEXAS. THE GULF WATERS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI COAST ACROSS S LOUISIANA N OF LAKE CHARLES AND OVER E TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW OVER S TEXAS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO BETWEEN VERA CRUZ AND CORPUS CHRISTI. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA WHICH IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS TO OVER E CUBA WHERE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE TO GUATEMALA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM NEAR 16N74W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N70W CONTINUING S TO OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 13N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W-75W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AND IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 70W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING MOST OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE E FLORIDA COAST S OF 29N TO OVER CUBA. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N55W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 22N58W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC SE OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NE ALONG 23N49W TO BEYOND 32N30W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200/225 NM SE OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER CENTRAL MOROCCO SSW OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 20N27W THEN NARROWING TO 9N42W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N27W INTO THE TROPICS TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N55W KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THERE AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AFRICAN DUST SPREADING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE