000 AXNT20 KNHC 302354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. EXAMINING THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EASTERN ATLC AND W AFRICA HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM...THIS WAVE EMERGED OFF THE COAST EARLIER TODAY. WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS RACED WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS... CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. ALOFT...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONG 600-700 MB AFRICAN EASTERLY JET MAXIMUM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS REACHING 50 KT OVER LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 19W-23W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N32W TO 3N33W MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AND COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ALSO LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE KEEPING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION SUPPRESSED S OF 8N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 32W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N46W TO 3N44W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 10N. CONVECTION THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 45W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD THAT EXTENDS NW OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO INTO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS IT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 59W-64W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 10N AND MOSTLY INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE WAVE GENERATING WIDESPREAD MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 10N W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 78W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 7N16W 4N24W 6N46W 7N57W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 52W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 34N89W AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA WEST TO THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS BORDER. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MID-LEVEL LIFT CREATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 29N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION AND THE TEXAS COAST. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. AT THE SURFACE...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 26N TO THE WESTERN GULF. AFTERNOON SEABREEZE INTERACTION ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE FLARED UP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM THE FLORIDA EVERGLADES TO PLANT CITY TO BEYOND VALDOSTA GEORGIA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF AGATHA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ALOFT OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THESE FEATURES CONTINUE TO WORK IN TANDEM TO PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CONTINUING THIS EVENING OVER EL-SALVADOR AND WESTERN HONDURAS WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY SPREADS N-NE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NW CARIBBEAN S OF 21N W OF 82W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 19N67W TO 16N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED AT THE SURFACE AND IS ANALYZED FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W ALONG 15N71W TO 12N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 64W-70W...INCLUDING EASTERN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE MOST OF THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 60W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 24N BETWEEN 77W AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 32N57W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N70W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N42W THAT EXTENDS W-SW TO A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH THEN EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG AND WITHIN 360 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 53W-58W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF A POINT CENTERED IN THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N58W NE TO BEYOND 32N30W. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LARGELY SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE SAME LINE THAT EXTENDS INTO A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N18W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN