000 AXNT20 KNHC 301725 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N30W TO 3N33W MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE AXIS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MOISTURE BULGE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 29W-32W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N42W TO 2N41W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 41W-44W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N54W TO EQ58W MOVING W 15-20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 57W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 10N67W TO EQ66W MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 5N30W 7N40W 7N50W 9N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 17W-20W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 44W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N E OF 92W...AND DOWN THE ERN FLORIDA COASTLINE. THESE SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN IN MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN CENTRAL AMERICA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC...AND DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA HAVE MOVED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N W OF 84W IMPACTING GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...BELIZE...AND HONDURAS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAT HAVE FALLEN OVER THESE AREAS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN IMPACTING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS MINIMIZED AND IS NOW CONFINED TO AN AREA ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W TO 11N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS N OF 14N. LIGHT SWLY SURFACE FLOW REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 15N72W. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGES COVER THE BASIN TO EITHER SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ONE IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...WHILE THE OTHER IS CENTERED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MON NIGHT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA W OF 78W. SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 34N65W ALONG WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N59W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER ALONG 23N62W TO 19N67W. A WARM FROM EXTENDS E OF THE CENTER TO NEAR 29N57W CONNECTING WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS TO THE ENE OUT OF THE AREA NEAR 32N41W. THIS COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TO THE N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SYSTEM COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 59W-67W...AND N OF 22N BETWEEN 43W-59W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 37N18W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N58W TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON