000 AXNT20 KNHC 301106 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 9N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 5N-8N. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 26W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 37W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 11N MOVING NW 20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED AS A CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAINLY BETWEEN 8N-11N AND ALSO REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION/SHOWERS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 12N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS ALSO NOTED. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N20W 5N33W 5N45W 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 14W-19W AND FROM 9N-12N E OF 17W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 44W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N89W WHILE THE GULF WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N87W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA THEN N OF LAKE CHARLES AND OVER E TEXAS TO N OF HOUSTON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND TEXAS COAST. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF COMPLIMENTS OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA WHICH THE LAST ADVISORY HAS BEEN WRITTEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER HIGH OVER THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE N CARIBBEAN NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF HAITI NEAR 17N72W ALONG 13N76W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 13N74W TO 11N80W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ELEVATED VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA OVER GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINLY S OF 20N W OF 85W. THESE RAINS COULD COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE MOST OF THE W ATLC W OF 62W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE E FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N-28N. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N43W ALONG 28N53W TO A WEAKENING 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N59W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 22N63W TO INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ELEVATED VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC SE OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 23N55W TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD/ VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N61W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 24N18W SW INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 8N39W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND THE AZORES THROUGH 32N27W TO 15N50W KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THERE THIS MORNING. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AFRICA DUST SPREADING W TO NEAR 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE