000 AXNT20 KNHC 300551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS S OF 8N AS IT LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 24W-27W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NORTH. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AS A CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAINLY BETWEEN 6N-11N AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 52W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 12N MOVING NW NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AT THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS ALSO NOTED. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 8N21W 5N32W 5N43W 7N51W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 7N16W TO INLAND OVER GUINEA AFRICA NEAR 10N13W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA 11W-13W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N90W SUPPORTING A SERIES OF 1008 MB SURFACE LOWS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI AND NW ARKANSAS. THE GULF WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK 1010 MB QUASI-STATIONARY HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N93W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR CRESTVIEW WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MOBILE BAY ALABAMA W TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA S OF NEW ORLEANS THEN N OF LAKE CHARLES AND OVER E TEXAS TO N OF AUSTIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-93W AND IN THE E GULF WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 27N86W. BROKEN DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF COMPLIMENTS OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA THAT MADE LANDFALL SAT NIGHT ON THE S COAST OF MEXICO/GUATEMALA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N87W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 18N89W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... ASSOCIATED WITH AGATHA OVER GUATEMALA/BELIZE AND S MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER HIGH OVER TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N E OF 80W AND AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N61W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N71W ALONG 13N75W TO OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 11N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 13N. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ELEVATED VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD/ VIRGIN ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO. HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AGATHA OVER GUATEMALA/BELIZE AND S MEXICO...COVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINLY S OF 18N W OF 87W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N-20N W OF 80W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE MOST OF THE FAR W ATLC W OF 65W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N-30N. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N43W TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N58W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 22N62W ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO INLAND OVER CUBA TO NEAR SANTA CLARA. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ELEVATED VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC SE OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 23N54W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/ VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR JUST SE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS EXTENDING SW INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 7N40W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND THE AZORES THROUGH 32N27W TO 19N52W KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THERE TONIGHT. 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