000 AXNT20 KNHC 292345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 9N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AS IT LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A MAXIMUM AREA OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 22W-26W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 7N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-LATITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AS IT IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DUST TO THE NORTH. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 35W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 48W-53W AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY AS NOTED IN CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 8N BETWEEN 50W-54W...AND INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 12N MOVING W-NW AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH INCREASED VALUES OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY MOVING NW OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AS WELL AS THE SE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS ALSO NOTED ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N25W 5N46W 8N59W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE W AFRICA COAST BETWEEN 9W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 29/2100 UTC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N89W THAT SUPPORTS A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR HATTIESBURG. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO THE SE TEXAS. SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-92W. SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA PROVIDING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 81W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 24N94W. SKIES CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR...HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NE FROM TROPICAL STORM AGATHA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION IS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA ENCOMPASSING CUBA AND JAMAICA WITH AXIS FROM 21N72W TO 16N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AND IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W TO 11N81W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED N OF 16N E OF 74W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ELEVATED VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N60W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 14N TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 13N86W. ALSO...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SE CARIBBEAN ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO FRACTURE N-NE FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS PROVIDING FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM TROPICAL STORM AGATHA LOCATED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA NW OF THE HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA BORDER OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND MUD SLIDES ARE ALL POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER E OF 70W...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO COVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N60W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO 26N66W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WARM FROM EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 28N57W CONNECTING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND 32N44W. THIS COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM FAR NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE LOW FROM 25N60W TO 22N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM OF A LINE FROM 32N42W TO ANGUILLA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FALL BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 12N60W TO BEYOND 32N35W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N20W PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N19W WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 9N33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN