000 AXNT20 KNHC 291740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N24W TO 1N23W MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A MOISTURE BULGE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 20W-23W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 7N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSED DUE TO AN AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR TO THE NORTH. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N48W TO EQ46W MOVING W 15-20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 46W-50W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 59W-64W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 11N72W TO 1N68W MOVING W 10-15 KT. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS BEING DRAWN TO THE NE IN DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 10N12W 7N20W 4N30W 4N40W 7N50W 6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 4W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 17W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 27W-32W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 40W-46W...AND FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 50W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N E OF 93W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA NEAR 30N87W ALONG 28N89W TO THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N92W. THIS WEAK SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN IN MAINLY W-NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE N. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ACROSS THE BASIN KEEPING WINDS LIGHT OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DISSIPATE AS WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN SW-W FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM AGATHA CURRENTLY SE OF GUATEMALA HAVE ALREADY MADE THEIR WAY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN CENTRAL AMERICA AFFECTING GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ENE THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SRN NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE JUST W OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARE ENHANCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 69W-77W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SRN HISPANIOLA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ELSEWHERE. FARTHER E...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 15N E OF 69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 59W-64W DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA W OF 80W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR W ATLC UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N62W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER ALONG 26N65W TO 26N70W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WARM FROM EXTENDS E OF THE CENTER TO NEAR 28N58W CONNECTING WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS TO THE NE OUT OF THE AREA NEAR 32N46W. THIS COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TO THE N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 42W-63W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM N OF ERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N58W TO N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 55W-64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN 45W-57W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 36N19W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON