000 AXNT20 KNHC 291051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W FROM 2N TO 9N MOVING WEST ABOUT 14 KT. THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W FROM 1N TO 7N MOVING WEST NEAR 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...AND CORRELATES WELL WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W FROM 1N TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 16 KT. THE WAVE ALSO LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INLAND OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. WEAK CONVECTION PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MERGED WITH THE ALREADY HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VENEZUELA...HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA EAST OF 66W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 10N15W WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 5N30W 4N40W 5N50W 5.5N60W. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST COMING OUT OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUPPORTING A WEAK 1006 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA DUE TO STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THE SURFACE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK 1010 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N94W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MOVING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NICARAGUA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES VERY HIGH VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN...AND AS A RESULT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA IS ADDING TO THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST/CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA AND OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SOUTH OF 15N. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL LINGER THROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N50W CONTINUING SW TO A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 28N61W. THEN...A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES WSW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N66W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR 25N58W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF HISPANIOLA TO 24N59W. NEVERTHELESS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 350 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N45W TO PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REST OF THE ATLC EAST OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N19W PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA