000 AXNT20 KNHC 282350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS SUPPRESSED BY SAHARAN DUST TO THE NORTH MOVING WEST OFF OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT AND MAINLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AS A RESULT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 19W-24W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 6N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO SUPPRESSED DUE TO THE AREA OF SAHARAN AIR TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE...THE WAVE LOCATES BENEATH AN AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 26W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 6N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BETWEEN 35W-44W AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 38W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS APPARENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N62W TO 1N59W MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MERGING WITH THE ALREADY HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA...HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 55W-66W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N34W 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 6W-14W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-34W...THAT INCLUDES TWO OF THE TROPICAL WAVES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 41W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK 1009 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO THE GULF ALONG 30N86W TO 27N92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS N OF 28N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM HOMESTEAD NORTHWARD THROUGH ORLANDO TO NORTH OF GAINESVILLE DUE TO LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK 1012 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N96W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXPANDING SE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND S TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN LOCATED ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO... FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND W ATLC THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND ADVECTION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION AND SW CARIBBEAN NE TOWARDS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM EASTERN CUBA TO WESTERN JAMAICA TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS LOCATED EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES VERY HIGH VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN...AND AS A RESULT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ADDITION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN VENEZUELA AND SUBSEQUENT FRACTURING OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE N-NE FROM THE WAVE WILL ADD TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALSO EXTENDS FROM 11N56W TO 14N74W ALONG 14N TO AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE E PACIFIC ALONG 95W. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE BASIN FURTHER SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE W ATLC WITH UPPER LEVEL AXIS ALONG 32N64W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM BEYOND 32N54W TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 29N66W THEN W-SW AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 27N76W. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N45W TO PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N42W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N20W PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. 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