000 AXNT20 KNHC 272355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 8N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 23W-28W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 7N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. MOVING BENEATH AN AREA OF CONVERGENT SURFACE FLOW AND COINCIDING WITH A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 30W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 8N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AS IT COINCIDES WITH AN AREA AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE S OF 10N...W OF 50W AND INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 9N BETWEEN 49W-58W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO STALL OVER COLOMBIA AS ENERGY AND MOISTURE FRACTURES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALSO SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SE PACIFIC IS CONTINUING TO DAMPEN OUT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 70W-76W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N32W 5N45W 6N54W 8N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-42W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 46W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND CLEAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE TEXAS NEAR 29N95W TO 27N90W WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING 10 KT IN THE GULF THIS EVENING. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC THAT DIPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE N-NE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY E OF 78W...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WITHIN 200 NM OF A LINE FROM ANGUILLA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W...COINCIDING WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM ERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO HONDURAS NEAR 14N88W LARGELY AS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS... PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE E PACIFIC NEAR 14N92W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N73W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING IT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO EASTERN CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING E OF THE LOW FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 68W-71W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER ALONG 27N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N81W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH IN TURN IS ADVECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ON SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A LEADING SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 32N47W TO 25N52W WHILE ANOTHER IS FROM 31N56W TO 21N61W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 45W-67W. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC STEMS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 12N58W NE TO 32N45W. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N25W KEEPING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN