000 AXNT20 KNHC 271749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 7N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 1134 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 25W-28W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 7N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS IS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 28W-32W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 8N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 41W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 50W-56W.. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N72W TO 3N70W PREVIOUSLY MOVING W 15-20 KT. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO STALL OVER COLOMBIA AS ITS WWD PROPAGATION IS BEING STOPPED IN SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE E PACIFIC S OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE ENERGY OF THIS WAVE IS ALSO BEING SHEARED TOWARDS THE NE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 69W-74W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 69W-72W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 5N20W 4N30W 4N40W 5N50W 6N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 11W-14W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 32W-39W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 45W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND CLEAR TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM A 1015 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE TEXAS NEAR 31N95W TO 28N93W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE AXIS. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHING 15 KT IN THE SWRN GULF. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE NRN GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS ERN CUBA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH ARE ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN CUBA NEAR 22N75W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 82W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO TO THE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM INLAND OVER COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA TO N OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 68W-76W...AND N OF 14N BETWEEN 62W-68W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SOME OF THE AREAS ARE ALSO FURTHER ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 72W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LARGE AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW E OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N74W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING IT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO ERN CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED E OF THE CENTER FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 68W-72W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER ALONG 28N75W TO THE NRN FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AS WELL AS E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 77W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO TO THE SE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 68W-72W...AND FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 62W-65W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM THE CARIBBEAN NWD TO 31N BETWEEN 52W-60W ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N58W TO NEAR 33N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 24N58W TO 19N64W ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGING WINDS BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE W ATLC AND SURFACE RIDGING COVERING THE E ATLC. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N48W TO 26N52W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE AXIS. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30N27W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN E OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON