000 AXNT20 KNHC 262350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 4N-8N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DIMINISHED. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W FROM 3N-7N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W FROM 3N-9N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BETWEEN 40W-50W AS SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 43W-50W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W FROM 3N-13N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TRINIDAD NEAR 11N60W. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS FRACTURING ENERGY AND ADVECTING MOISTURE N-NE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 68W-74W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 5N32W 6N47W 6N57W TO EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 24W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS VERY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING DUE TO UPPER LEVEL W-NW FLOW AND DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. THIS AREA OF W-NW FLOW IS LOCATED WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE W ATLC ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE... RIDGING CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING FOR CLEAR AND FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING WHICH ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 16N W OF 81W INFLUENCED BY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 81W AS A RESULT AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 75W-80W. WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N83W TO FAR WESTERN GUATEMALA NEAR 15N92W. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT N-NE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 60W-75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LARGELY E OF 72W. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE W ATLC AND DIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... THUS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N76W. THE SURFACE LOW IS ALMOST CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM NEAR 27N76W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO LOCATED N-NE OF HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 58W-71W ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N60W TO 30N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF 20N BETWEEN 46W-58W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N32W PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 46W. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN E OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN