000 AXNT20 KNHC 251725 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC NE OF THE BAHAMAS ANCHORED BY A WEAKENING 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N72W. THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WELL REMOVED TO THE N AND WELL E OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N-35N BETWEEN 72W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N-35N BETWEEN 56W-72W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 50W-60W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FROM 31N-36N BETWEEN 73W-78W. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N24W TO 3N25W MOVING W 15-20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 24W-27W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 38W-42W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N58W TO 3N57W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 56W-59W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER WRN VENEZUELA/ERN COLOMBIA EXTENDING FROM 11N70W TO 2N68W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 69W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 66W-72W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N80W ACROSS ERN PANAMA TO COLOMBIA NEAR 5N76W MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 75W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 74W-80W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 5N20W 4N30W 5N40W 5N50W 7N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-16W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 42W-47W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 49W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND CLEAR TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS SRN MEXICO TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING COVERS THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N93W. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO 26N87W CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHING 15 KT IN THE SWRN GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE NRN SIDE OF A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE W ATLC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TO E OF HONDURAS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN SWLY ALOFT ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH ARE ENHANCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND OVER SRN HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 68W-77W. THIS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING MUCH OF COSTA RICA DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 67W REMAINS UNDER GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER TROUGHING COVERS THE W ATLC BRINGING DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS A LARGE AREA MAINLY N OF 30N W OF 60W...AND N OF 21N BETWEEN AND BETWEEN 52W-63W. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 30N72W ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SURFACE LOW AND AREAS OF CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE FEATURE IN A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WITH AXIS TO THE WRN CARIBBEAN...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 55W. DRY AIR IS ALSO BEING ENTRAINED AROUND THE ERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR W OF 74W S OF 30N. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 33N48W 34N32W 38W28W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON/RAMOS