000 AXNT20 KNHC 250007 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2350 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITHIN THIS AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 32N68W SUPPORTING TWO 1007 MB SURFACE LOWS CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR 28N70W AND 29N69W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS ALSO BEING ENTRAINED AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING THIS SYSTEM DISORGANIZED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WELL REMOVED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 73W. GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT SEA STATE ANALYSIS AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LOW CENTER REVEALED 11 FT TO 16 FT SEAS NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30N72W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W FROM 4N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. THE WAVE IS OVER AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W FROM 2N TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 14 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W FROM 2N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS ENTERING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS FRENCH GUIANA. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5.5N10W WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 6N30W 5N40W 7N50W 5N60W. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN AFRICA COAST INCLUDING LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...AND GUINEA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR 29N90W. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC IS MOVING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INSTABILITY OVER THIS REGION IS PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA NORTH OF 28N...AND THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE GULF. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROUGH IS FOUND IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST BASIN...ALONG 13N80W 11N82W CONTINUING INTO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. THIS FEATURE IS REACHING DOWN TO SURFACE...ENHANCING THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THIS REGION AND PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 75W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BASIN WEST OF 77W NORTH OF 15N. THEREFORE...FAIR WEATHER IS SEEN OVER THIS REGION. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADEWINDS. A MORE CONSISTENT AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND NORTH OF 17N EAST OF 73W INCLUDING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTION ACROSS A LARGE AREA MAINLY NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 72W. SEVERAL SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE FEATURES IN A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT. FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SEE SPECIAL FEATURES DISCUSSION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTING A COUPLE OF SURFACE HIGHS NEAR 36N45W AND 33N34W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA