000
AXNT20 KNHC 240552
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
TO THE WEST OF 62W. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW EVEN REACHES INTO 
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS ONE 1006 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N69W TO A SECOND 1006 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N70W...AND CONTINUING TO HAITI.
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FOR THE SOUTHERN LOW 
CENTER TO DISSIPATE...AND FOR THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AND DEVELOP GALE-FORCE WINDS AROUND IT. STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 
58W AND 60W. OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 19N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W TO THE SOUTH
OF 9N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS WITH
THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 3N TO 9N 
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 60 NM TO 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 39W AND 
41W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 5N30W 5N47W INTO FRENCH 
GUIANA AND SURINAME NEAR 5N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 13W
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SIERRA 
LEONE AND GUINEA FROM 8N TO 10N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W AND 22W...
AND FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND COASTAL WATERS OF FRENCH GUIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 25W
AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AND IT COVERS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF MEXICO...BEYOND
THE FAR WEST TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND 
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...A COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE IN 
MEXICO WITH THE FLOW AROUND A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AROUND 
A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS INTO THE 
AREA NEAR 15N80W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE FROM 15N80W
TOWARD HAITI AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A NARROW PART OF 
THE 15N80W TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS NICARAGUA AND BEYOND INTO THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM 
CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N 
TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N77W 
BEYOND 20N68W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 33N37W TO 23N36W. A SECOND 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 
29N23W. NEITHER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY DISCERNIBLE 
PRECIPITATION. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA 
TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT