000 AXNT20 KNHC 231729 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N69W THROUGH A WEAKENING 1008 MB LOW NEAR 25N70W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W. SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND LOW IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT LOW AND WILL BE ADDED AT 23/1800 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N AND E OF THE LOW WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 22N58W TO 29N69W AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N67W TO 23N65W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FOUND FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 64W-70W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N AND BE N OF THE REGION BY LATE TUE NIGHT THEN WILL DRIFT E THROUGH THU. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 9N39W TO TO 3N41W MOVING NW NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SLIGHT AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 38W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS MOVING OVER SOUTH AMERICA. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N19W 5N26W 4N34W 6N42W 4N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 11W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA N OF 1N E OF 54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 24W-36W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 42W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM S MEXICO ALONG 97W TO INLAND OVER E TEXAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E GULF E OF 89W AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE KEEPING THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. RETURN FLOW AROUND A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA AND IS DRAWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW GULF GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N94W TO 26N95W. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 27N W OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BRINGING DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THAT AREA INCLUDING CUBA AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF 80W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER E PANAMA E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N83W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC W OF 65W AND DIPPING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW IN THE W ATLC. THE W ATLC W OF THE LOW/TROUGH IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE W OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES ALONG 54W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE