000 AXNT20 KNHC 231045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 23/0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N68W TO AN EMBEDDED 1007 MB LOW AT 25N70W TO HISPANIOLA AT 20N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 66W-69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A GALE IN A FEW HOURS AT 1200 UTC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ESPECIALLY TIGHT N OF THE LOW CENTER AND CONVECTION IS NOT IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE CENTER THUS THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY TROPICAL IN NATURE. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DRIFT N FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THEN DRIFT NW. IN ADDITION...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY CENTERED NEARBY AT 26N68W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER CENTER TO 55W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W FROM 3N-10N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W FROM 1N-10N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 38W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W FROM 2N-11N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SURINAME FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 54W-57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N30W 4N40W TO N BRAZIL AT 2N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 14W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 24W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 35W-38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 49W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. THE W GULF W OF 91W HAS PREDOMINATELY 15-20 KT FROM THE SE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT... CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 79W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 84W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N E OF 78W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW WINDS WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. EXPECT...CONTINUED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 42N58W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N33W PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N34W. EXPECT...THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA