000 AXNT20 KNHC 230558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 23/0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N68W TO AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW AT 25N69W TO HISPANIOLA AT 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA AND WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A GALE LOW TODAY BY 1200 UTC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESPECIALLY TIGHTEN N OF THE LOW CENTER. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE N WITH TIME AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS N. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY CENTERED NEARBY AT 27N68W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 57W-64W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W FROM 5N-10N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 14W-24W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W FROM 1N-8N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 35W-44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W FROM 2N-11N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 51W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 53W-57W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N30W 3N45W TO N BRAZIL AT 2N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A 1016 MB HIGH IS EMBEDDED ON THE AXIS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N86W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. THE W GULF W OF 90W HAS PREDOMINATELY 15-20 KT FROM THE SE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0300 UTC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 79W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 83W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 73W-76W. IN ADDITION ...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N E OF 80W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW WINDS WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. EXPECT... CONTINUED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 43N58W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N34W PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N35W. EXPECT...THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA