000 AXNT20 KNHC 230004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH...NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND SUPPORTS A BROAD 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 25N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM NEAR 28N66W ALONG 25N67W 22N70W 23N74W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM 23N65W TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 20N68W TO NEAR 192N72W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W. DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT TO THE EAST WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION IS...IS PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO THIS SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W FROM 5N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING ALONG WITH THE ITCZ AND ITS LOCATION IS BASED ON COMPUTER MODEL DATA INDICATING A TRACKABLE AREA OF WIND SHIFT. MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FOUND EAST OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINENT ALONG 53W FROM 2N TO 11N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE LIES IN A REGION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 6N20W 4N30W 5N40W 3.5N50W. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... FAIR WEATHER OS NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. AT SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED CROSSING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N94W TO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN NEAR 18N92W. WEAK CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS TROUGH EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS 26N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FOUND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W FURTHER PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHEAST BASIN...EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE WEST OF 84W DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA/LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 19N86W SOUTHWARD TO 14N84W. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EMBEDDED ON THE TRADEWINDS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WEST OF 79W SOUTH OF 13N DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 25N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM 28N66W TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 25N67W CONTINUING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 22N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM 23N65W TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 20N68W TO NEAR 192N72W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W. FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHS SEE SPECIAL FEATURES DISCUSSION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTING A SURFACE 1030 MB HIGH SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 36N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA