000 AXNT20 KNHC 221048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 22/0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N73W TO AN EMBEDDED 1011 MB LOW AT 24N73W TO HAITI AT 18N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA S OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1012 MB LOW HAS RECENTLY FORMED 270 NM FURTHER E AT 25N68W. THIS NEW LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A GALE LOW BY SUNDAY 23/1800 UTC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESPECIALLY TIGHTEN N OF THE LOW CENTER. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE N WITH TIME AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS N. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY CENTERED NEARBY AT 27N68W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 62W-68W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 7N AND COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PREDOMINATELY ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 33W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AS IT MOVES OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL W ATLC AND GUYANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA ALONG 79W/80W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM NW NICARAGUA AT 13N87W TO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 6N91W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 84W-91W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N20W 4N40W TO N BRAZIL AT 4N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 12W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 47W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A 1009 MB LOW IS HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N89W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE CENTER. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT FROM THE SE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LOW OVER BELIZE AND N GUATEMALA. IN ADDITION ...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FURTHER S...TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING SLOWLY W. SEE ABOVE. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF GUATEMALA NEAR 14N92W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 85W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT... CONTINUED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO SURFACE LOWS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N36W PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N41W. EXPECT...THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA