000 AXNT20 KNHC 220607 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 22/0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 30N73W 25N73W 20N71W. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 25N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE A NEW LOW FORMS SOME 240 NM FURTHER E. THIS NEW LOW WILL BE A DEEP LAYERED LOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOVE IT PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER CENTER AND CONVECTION. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN N OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY 1800 UTC. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE N WITH TIME AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS N. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 7N AND COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 27W-41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 31W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AS IT MOVES OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL W ATLC AND SECTIONS OF SURINAME AND GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 53W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N78W TO EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N79W AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W-NW AT 5-10 KT. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN AND EVENTUALLY INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-80W AND CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM N NICARAGUA AT 13N86W TO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 6N90W MOVING W-NW AT 5-10 KT. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE CONTINUE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 84W-91W. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AS ENERGY FROM THE WAVE FRACTURES AND MOVES NW. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N20W 4N40W AND INLAND TO N BRAZIL AT 4N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 15W-29W...AND FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 47W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A 1008 MB LOW IS HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N89W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE CENTER. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT FROM THE SE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT...SHOWERS OVER W CUBA FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0300 UTC... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LOW FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 87W-90W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF PUERTO RICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FURTHER S...TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING SLOWLY W. SEE ABOVE. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF GUATEMALA NEAR 14N92W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 85W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT... CONTINUED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N73W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N38W PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 63W-69W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N42W. EXPECT...THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA