000 AXNT20 KNHC 211639 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1615 UTC... SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N72W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N70W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN DONE FOR THIS FEATURE...AND THE EARLIEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST INDICATES THAT IT WILL STAY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT MORE OR LESS ITS SAME PRESSURE VALUE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ITCZ IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/77W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA...CROSSING INTO NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...AND THEN CONTINUING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO PRECIPITATION THAT IS JUST RELATED TO THIS WAVE IS DISCERNIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 6N20W TO 3N28W 5N43W... AND INTO NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N54W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W...AND THE LAND AREA FROM GUYANA TO FRENCH GUIANA FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 6W AND 13W...AND WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N13.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 22N. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COMES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO... BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA JUST AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERNMOST FLORIDA KEYS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 80W AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE CLUSTER ARE ABOUT 120 NM TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FROM JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA TO 26N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS A SPECIAL FEATURE IS NEAR 27N72W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 27N35W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N48W TO 16N49W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 54W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 9N60W OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...TO 14N40W BEYOND 19N20W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N10W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...HUGGING THE COASTS OF MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA TO 19N22W. NO PRECIPITATION IS DISCERNIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THIS TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT