000 AXNT20 KNHC 210539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED AT LOW LATITUDE...S OF 6N...AS THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 29W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 48W-57W WITH AN AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 53W-57W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON THE GFS AT 850 MB. IT IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. WHILE LARGELY LOCATED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 84W-90W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 4N30W 3N40W 5N53W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 10W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-6N BETWEEN 23W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND ALONG 31N FROM S GEORGIA TO E TEXAS PRODUCING RAIN AND SHOWERS N OF 31N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO ARE 10-15 KT FROM THE SE...WHILE 15-20 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE W GULF W OF 94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT... CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0300 UTC...A SMALL 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO W CUBA NEAR 23N84W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 81W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 80W-87W. FURTHER S...TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN MOVING W. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO JAMAICA TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 18N88W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 80W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...CONTINUED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N74W TO 21N74W. AN EMBEDDED LOW IS ON THE TROUGH NEAR 26N74W. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 68W-74W. A 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N42W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 29N67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N 73W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N49W. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N10W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS TO DRIFT N WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA