000 AXNT20 KNHC 201734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAY 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ITCZ IS ALONG 39W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN COASTAL COLOMBIA ALONG 74W AND 81W. IT IS NOT EASY TO DETERMINE IF THE PRECIPITATION IS OR IS NOT RELATED TO JUST THE WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W FROM 12N IN NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 10N13W TO 5N20W TO 5N31W 4N38W AND 5N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N13W...5N23W...THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF 10N ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W... AND WITHIN 30 NM NO EITHER SIDE OF 7N BETWEEN 58W AND 59W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W...NEAR THE ITCZ AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE 84W TROPICAL WAVE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 68W... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS TEXAS AS A TROUGH CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS 24 HOURS AGO NOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN NORTHERN BELIZE TO WESTERN CUBA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF JAMAICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. MULTILAYERED OVERCAST CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 68W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER PANAMA AND POSSIBLY COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. THE REST OF THE STRONG PRECIPITATION COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. SURFACE EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARD FLORIDA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS HAS DISSIPATED. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N43W TO 25N52W TO 16N50W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN SMALL CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS AND LINES OF CLOUDS IN SURFACE CONFLUENT FLOW...FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N11W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 19N23W. NO PRECIPITATION IS DISCERNIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH THIS TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT