000 AXNT20 KNHC 201044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS AT A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 27W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 45W-54W WITH VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER INLAND COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 72W-78W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 13N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 79W-87W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N20W 5N31W 3N40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 18W-27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 33W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N. A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND ALONG 31N FROM S GEORGIA TO S MISSISSIPPI PRODUCING RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER INLAND MISSISSIPPI. WINDS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT 5-10 KT FROM THE SE...WHILE 15 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N83W MOVING E. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND CUBA E OF 83W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 84W. EXPECT... CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND CUBA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC...A SMALL 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO W CUBA NEAR 22N84W. AN AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 83W-87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 76W-84W. FURTHER S...TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN MOVING W. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO JAMAICA TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF GUATEMALA NEAR 14N93W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 80W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...CONTINUED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 26N75W TO 22N77W. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 70W-77W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N47W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 29N75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DIFFLUENCE FROM THE FLORIDA UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N54W. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N10W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA