000 AXNT20 KNHC 200545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS AT A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 24W-29W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 44W-53W WITH VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER INLAND COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 72W-77W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 13N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY S OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-83W. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 79W-84W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N20W 5N30W 5N47W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 16W-22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 36W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N. A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND ALONG 31N FROM S GEORGIA TO S MISSISSIPPI PRODUCING RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER INLAND ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. WINDS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT 5-10 KT FROM THE SE...WHILE 15 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N85W MOVING E. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND CUBA E OF 83W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 84W. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0300 UTC...A SMALL 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO W CUBA NEAR 22N84W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE MAINLY S AND E OF THE LOW CENTER OVER HONDURAS...GUATEMALA ...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN...FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 83W-90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 76W-82W. FURTHER S...TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN MOVING W. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO JAMAICA TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF GUATEMALA NEAR 14N93W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 80W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...CONTINUED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N50W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 30N73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DIFFLUENCE FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N56W. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N10W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER MOROCCO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N74W WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA